Stochastic approach for Space thermal analysis

ESA Project 16603/02/NL/CP


Matteo Gorlani, Blue Engineering

Valter Perotto, Alenia Spazio

Olivier Pin, ESTEC/ESA

Thermal Analysis, ESTEC/ESA


The objective of the study was to assess the applicability of the stochastic approach to S/C thermal analysis throughout the following steps:

  • to verify the usefulness versus the analysis, design and verification of TCS in real cases
  • to assess its advantages / disadvantages versus the classical analysis and design method for different application scenarios (type of analysis, models, spacecraft)
  • to identify requirements to TCS approach posed by the introduction of stochastic method (on TCS flow of activities, engineering skill, H/W resources)
  • to produce a handbook for thermal and system engineers containing the fundamentals of stochastic method, rules and guidelines for application to S/C TCS, requirements and limits.

Material available for download

The following material is available for download on this website:

  • The final presentation given at the 2004 Thermal and ECLS workshop (ppt)
  • The handbook (Both HTML and pdf)
  • Test cases used in the handbook and presentation
  • The Thermal and ECLS 2004 workshop presentation (pdf)
  • The executive report (pdf)

The downloads below require a valid username and password. To obtain a username and password, please register your account stating your name, occupation, organisation and the area: stochastic. You will receive your username and password within 1 to 7 days usually. (Everything in one zipfile – 40MB)

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